Precipitation Forecasting and Monitoring in Degraded Land: A Study Case in Zaghouan

The study aimed to forecast and monitor drought over degraded land based on monthly precipitation using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) approach. Several statistical parameters select most appropriate model were applied. results indicate that SARIMA (1,1,1) (0,1,1)12 is suitable for 1981 2019 CHIRPS time-series data. combination of data this approved will subsequently be applied compute, assess, predict severity in area. forecasting performance generated was evaluated according mean absolute percentage error (15%), which indicated proposed showed high drought. trends adequate results, fitting well with historical tendencies events.